Canada’s approval rate for new international student permits has hit a ten-year low, dipping even below figures recorded during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. A new report by ApplyBoard attributes this sharp decline to the federal government’s stringent cap on post-secondary student intakes.
According to the report, only 80,000 new study permits are expected to be approved in 2025—a staggering 62% drop from 2024. This number is also 12,000 fewer than the approvals recorded in 2020, when pandemic restrictions were at their peak.
The findings suggest that 2025 could be one of the most competitive years ever for international applicants. The college sector appears hardest hit, as nearly 80% of all current study permits are now being issued to existing students extending their stays. As a result, fewer than 30,000 new students are projected to gain admission to college programs nationwide.
While universities are showing some signs of recovery in approval rates, opportunities for new applicants remain limited. The report also flags a concerning drop in diversity, with students from major source countries such as India, the Philippines, and several African nations facing the lowest approval rates.
A major shift is also taking place within Canada’s student landscape. For the first time, students already residing in the country are expected to account for nearly two-thirds of all post-secondary study permits issued this year. This underscores how permit renewals have significantly outpaced new arrivals.
If current patterns persist, ApplyBoard forecasts that Canada’s total international student population could shrink by as much as 50% in 2026, as the number of graduating students surpasses that of new entrants.
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Despite the decline, international students’ interest in Canada remains strong. The report notes that 95% of surveyed students still aspire to study there, drawn by its world-class education system, multicultural environment, and post-graduation work opportunities. This enduring appeal suggests that while barriers to entry are rising, Canada continues to hold its reputation as one of the world’s most attractive destinations for higher education.